AAA the GOP establishment. That is the funniest thing I have read in a while.  (at least they spelled my name wrong too) 

If this doesn’t show you just how little this movement is active and involved in the broader Republican party, I don’t know what would. Me a part of the establishment? The same establishment I have been hardping on for protecting wayward Republicans? The same establishment I have said has gotten us into this mess. 

Look folks, here’s my problem with the Ron Paul thing. I have yet to see how it is about anything other than Ron Paul and the Presidency. There are some good people, but the goal (which I found out about last night) is 25% of the Delegates this time, and 50% in 2012. The Paul campaign’s goal is singular, Ron Paul for President, period. 

This has nothing to do with getting good Republicans elected up and down the ticket here in Minnesota. That’s my problem and why I am worried. If we lose 5 seats in the MN House Republican politics in Minnesota is over.

I have a lot in common with the Paul folks. Upset with where the party has been going. Upset about the liberal policies and entitlement programs. I do not however, share some of the ‘libertarian’ policies. Some I do, but some are completely unrealistic or at least not Republican or center right stances. 

Believe it or not, they pulled the platform plank to support the marriage amendment in one Congressional District. And it seems their message is one of anti-legal moralism and anti legal paternalism. Will they fight for all or most of the Republican values, or just the ones they espouse.

In Minnesota we have to worry about races besides POTUS and Ron Paul will not be appearing on any ballot here. If that is enough to label me establishment, so be it. The party cannot be singular in focus when it comes to candidates, especially if that candidate will not be appearing on a November ballot. 

When people ask me what next, I remind them that Jimmy Carter gave us Ronald Reagan, with out Carter, Americans would not have realized it was truly time for the Government to change. (NO, Obama and Hillary are not going to change anything in DC)

I got an interesting email this morning that includes some great retrospective on how we got to Reagan and how McCain’s ascension is a kin to Gerald Ford’s.

When you look at the math for the delegate count, it would be much easier for Gov. Romney to back out at this time since the delegate math had shown that it would be an expensive up-hill struggle to win the remaining delegates necessary to win.

Just remember back in 1976. We had President Ford, who was weak on economic issues.  Ronald Reagan challenged Ford in ‘76, and Ford got trounced by Carter.  Reagan ran hard for the nomination in 1980 and then went on to win the Presidency by a landslide.

What we are seeing this year are similar demographics to 1976.  In ‘76, the Democrats had been out of the White House since 1968 (8 years) and were desperately wanting to take it back.  They had a huge surge of momentum that swept Carter into office.  The Republicans were still smarting over the stigma left behind from the Nixon Administration and the Watergate scandal.

Now, in 2008, we have Democrats who desperately want the White House, not having been in it at all for the past decade, and we have a Republican base that is demoralized for the wrecklessness of our former-majority in Congress and the current President over the economy.

My prediction is that Obama will be elected but he will become a one-term President.  He will have to appease his base and get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan.  In the meantime, he will also have to preside over a huge National Debt, and get increased spending under control.  By the time 2011 hits, we will be in a full-fledged recession, if not depression, and  by 2012, either Newt Gingrich or Gov. Romney will be elected President by a landslide.

This is something that is just cyclical. Bear with it.  Focus on the local races.

The key point is to not forget the local and Congressional races. I fear having McCain on the Republican ticket is going to hurt Congressional Republican candidates. And given the huge number of  Senate Republicans up this year, it is nearly impossible to expect gaining the majority. Add to that the large number of House Republicans retiring, on top of all the seats being up, well….. John McCain’s maverick message is going to make it awful tough for conservative candidates to rally their own base to their race.

After the 2006 election a lot of us hoped Party leaders got the message. Both in Minnesota and at the National level, we either returned failed leaders or elected moderates to run the parties. So far it is looking like the results of 08 will be what most of us feared with out serious reform in the party.

It is going to have to get worse before it gets any better.

I suppose I should take this opportunity to announce my intentions to think about exploring a run for President in 2012.

AAA in ‘012!