I am glad I don’t live in Iowa, and it ain’t just because of the nightlife, or lack there of. The 2012 GOP Primary is on the eve of ramping up and I see a battle brewing. Of course the DC elite and establishment of the center right …. er right of left, is going to try to trash Palin. She may be the most natural candidate to come along since the Gipper, and that scares the other ones who have trained and planned their lives’ journey via political office. 

Yes, I do think Sarah Palin is a serious contender for 2012, and I think she is taking aim at the anointed one. I know that Pawlenty had his heart set on the VP slot under McCain. He carried a lot of water for him, and the choice of Palin was a huge blow to him. He’d have been the automatic choice in 2012, but now he has to earn it. And in turn, Palin needs to get to the head of the pack. 

Hence her surprise announcement to get Alaska out of the crosshairs and herself free of the bounds of political defenses. As Alaska Guv, he was hamstrung in defending herself from the elite and liberal attacks. But as a free citizen, she has free reign to campaign and take some jabs at her competition. 

And the idea that she is opening the door for her Lt. Gov. to take the helm and run as the incumbent, rather then her use her lame duck term to campaign for another position is a shot at the Northstar State’s Pawlenty. He is also not seeking reelection, but he is not handing off power to his Lt. Carol Malnau. He is riding out his term. 

I think since they weren’t in the mix in the early POTUS scramble in 2008, they may be a little better positioned on the inside lane. Chomping at their heels are Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Romney had already deployed the strategy of not running for reelection as Guv in order to use the office to run for President, it didn’t necessarily work, but then again, the 2008 primary was little about the grassroots. Romney did become a favorite of the anti-McCain in the base, but it was more of him being the only alternative. Whether he has done enough to overcome his former liberalness remains to be seen, and don’t forget, he wasn’t seen on the campaign trail as was Pawlenty and Palin. He made the pundit and media circuits, but Palin and Pawlenty were barnstorming. 

And then there was Newt. Early this year I thought for sure he was running. He was trying to suck up all the oxygen in the room when it came to responses to Obama and the talking head tours on TV. Whether it was his website or his appearances on the news networks, Newt was trying to become the face of the opposition. But then he went overboard on a few things (to be honest they weren’t memorable, but turned me off) , and he seems to have drifted back, but I think he wants to be President and this is his last hurrah. 

I think these are the Tier one or inside lane contenders in the marathon that is the 2012 GOP POTUS battle. There will be more, and it isn’t a sprint. Chances are we could have a come from behind Mine That Bird like candidate.

As I said, Palin is the natural candidate that the base can relate to and drives the left nuts, but unfortunately, same with the GOP establishment. I just heard a clip of RNC CHair Steele saying he doesn’t think she can contend given her personal issues. She would be fighting the GOP elite and establishment, and that would make it hard. 

Pawlenty is the second coming of McCain, although more polished, he comes from the McCain mold of Republicans. Oh sure, he sounds like the second coming of Reagan at times, but let’s not forget his affliction for all things Green, spending appetite that has only been trimmed by the recession. He may be a contender and a capable face of the party, but whether he can carry the water for the conservative base while trying to reshape the party into his own visions remains to be seen.

Romney is a given contender given his 2nd place finish to McCain last time and his vast personal wealth, but if he can define himself as a true blue conservative who can be the principled opposition to Obama remains to be seen.

Newt? Well, I am confident he was running, but unfortunately the much younger conservative base mixed with the elder ones who remember his past discretions are an unwelcoming crowd.

So the early favorite of the grassroots in my mind is Palin. And of the establishment is Pawlenty. I think that would be your one and two if we had a national primary and the election was today.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 7th, 2009 at 7:45 am and is filed under 08 Post Facto, 2012, MN Governor, McPlenty, Minnesota, National, Politics, Redistributor In Chief. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.