Residual Forces

The sick and twisted new game in politics is the neverending campaign cycle. We still haven’t sworn in Barrack Obama as the 44th President, but we’re already seeing the media maelstrom begin the battle for 2012. 

It is far too early for any speculation about who the Republican will be, but I will say that I have to wonder if the media is going to try to pick our candidate again. (Yes, they had a huge role in John McCain being our candidate this time around) 

But before we get to 2012, we need to get through 2010. And here in Minnesota it will have huge implications. Before Gov. Tim pawlenty can try to be McCain 2.0 er #45, he needs to figure out how much he likes his digs on Summit Ave as well as the Republican Party of Minnesota and the people who call it their political home. 

Will he or won’t he run for reelection as Minnesota’s Governor. 

That’s one of the most important things in Minnesota politics right now. He is refusing to say what he will do, and one can easily see why. If he announces now that he won’t seek a 3rd term, he becomes a lame duck and the DFL dominated (that’s putting it lightly) Legislature doesn’t even have to pretend to be nice to him and can act like a drunken rickshaw driver through the people’s revenue department. 

The House Republicans are even leaner this year, and just 3 of them flaking off (we’re watching you Abeler) on a veto can mean massive and oppressive tax and spending increases no matter where Pawlenty stands on the issue. Democrats here want to pass universal health care and expand the entittlement system to galvanize Minnesotans dependency on Government. They are just those 3 House Republican votes away from an override. That’s even closer than last session. We lost 2 seats.

A weak or lame duck Pawlenty going into this year’s budget session would open the door to single party rule. So I can understand why pawlenty won’t say what he will do if he doesn’t want a 3rd term.

But……..

Longterm there are other fish to fry in Minnesota. The Republican Party of Minnesota is caught in a gator’s deathroll in the DFL swamp right now. Over the last 6 years our stature has gone from Solid Purple state with even balance to leaning Republican in the Legislature to GOPers as an endangered species in St. Paul and the public voting for taxes increases for special interests.

Now I refuse to believe that conservatism is dead in Minnesota, heck the Republican Party hasn’t been pushing it for a couple elections both statewide and nationally and its senior candidates the last 2 to 3 cycles have refused to embrace and promote it. So I doubt Minnesota has become even more liberal.

OK, here’s the point.

If Pawlenty is going to seek a 3rd term it would be beneficial for conservatives if he announced it now so conservatives could engage with Pawlenty and help push him back to the right. His Sam’s Club Republican and “more appealing” montra scares the begeezers out of a principled conservative like me.

Look, the Pawlenty of the 2002 election and the 2003-4 Legislature was fabulous and I so desperately want to see that guy come back. But since that time Pawlenty has drifted left and legitimized many liberal policies by refusing to fight against them. State spending has increased at a nearly 10% rate under his watch. We’ve also seen money siphoned out of the Highway and road funds and other money earmarked directly to mass transit schemes that do nothing to relieve congestion or fix our aging infrastructure. And frankly when our House candidate go door to door trying to make the pitch for true limited government and fiscal responsibility, they have to counter act the Pawlenty doctrine. 

Enough is enough, we’ve crossed the threshold already. 

A lot of people say Pawlenty is the most conservative Governor we have ever had in Minnesota, and if we talk about the 2002-4 version of him, I couldn’t agree more. But the Pawlenty of late who seems more interested in national aspirations than he does promoting the conservative message here at home in Minnesota. He’s no longer being a watchdog for state taxpayers and protecting Minnesotans from a DFL Legislature hellbent on eroding freedoms and liberties for their radical nanny state (socialist) agenda. 

I personally think the new Pawlenty has set conservatism back some. He’s an opportunist, not a purist ideologue. A populist not a Reaganite willing to try to move poll numbers, not follow them. Now look, the guy is probably a real nice guy and he is doing a decent job being Governor, but I just can’t stand how he is being allowed to define Republican values and the party does nothing. I’ve also been listening to those speeches of his where he tries to dress down us lowly principled conservatives who fight for our values.  

Pawlenty wants the Republican party to “become more inclusive“.

Well, if his tenure as Governor can shed light on the conservative principles we need to water down to be tolerant of the moderate voters, I guess fiscal responsibility is on the chopping block. Oh sure, he opposes “tax” increases, but he has raised fees and spending well beyond inflationary levels. We have seen him spend 2 budget surpluses and add them into the running budget calculations. I’m sorry, that’s pretty much the opposite of a taxpayer’s friend. 

Now that our state and nation are heading toward a serious economic downturn/recession, we as fiscal conservatives will have to not only fight against tax increases, but also against Pawlenty’s notion that the added Government spending is necessary and there is no wasteful spending left to cut. 

And given the Republican Party of Minnesota’s unwritten administrative policy of letting the candidates define what we stand for, our base is livid and crumbling. “Why bother” is the new, “What can I do?”amongst the volunteer base. That’s one of the major reasons I opposed McCain and would oppose Pawlenty as our top of the ticket in 2012. There’s no there there. Or rather, what makes you the next Reagan our country needs so badly? 

But 2010 comes first and Pawlenty owes it to Minnesota conservatives to let us know what his intentions truly are. We have only 47 Minnesota House Republicans and they are 20 votes from being able to pass anything resembling conservative legislation. Our only hope is a Governor willing to introduce conservative legislation during negotiations that we can help sell to Minnesotans through a revived grassroots and put pressure on (so-called) conservative Democrats to cross on over that aisle to vote for good legislation. We could create a groundswell and change the dynamics of minnesota politics, but only if we share the passion for the ideas.

That’s one of the big downfalls of Republicans lately. They go into negotiations with what they think is a compromise. The Democrats go in with their radical demands. So when there is a compromise, we end up far from where the real conservative line is. And the conservative base of the Republican Party is left out in the cold feeling betrayed by those who are supposedly there on their behalf.

And if Pawlenty is going to run for a 3rd term, he’d be wise to engage the conservative base again and at least pay us lip service with principled fiscal conservatism this next Legislative session. Fabrizio’s tactic of ‘take the base for granted, they’ll vote for you no matter what’ is a trick you don’t want to try twice. You scraped by with a plurality win last time, if you lose more of your base, say to a conservative 3rd party, you’re done and so are your aspirations of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

We, the conservative base, are more than willing to be the wind in the sails helping push Pawlenty and Republicans to policy victory in Minnesota, but we’re also prepared to be the gail force wind in the face if they go left and try to further water down conservatism. 

That’s not a threat, but rather a statement of fact from a guy who runs in the trenches with the people who really make up this party and perform the November magic. We’re tired of  any politicians pushing liberal ideas, and in a non-partisan way. The conservative natives are restless and if we end up seeing our own side continue to work and fight against us and our beliefs in what Government should really be doing, well, let’s just say we’re not going to take it anymore.

Just like I told Norm Coleman’s campaign during the Amnesty and SCHIPs debate in Washington, just imagine IF all those calls from conservatives trying to get you to vote their way were made to voters on your behalf. And imagine if the Republican party had used sch issues to engage in voter reach out and issue identification, we wouldn’t spend the last 10 weeks scrambling to find someone willing to listen to the drivel we’re told to sell. 

It became clear to us conservatives that Republicans in office could not be left unattended and that we do need to keep an eye on them. We can’t just thank them on the Wednesday morning after election for a fun last few weeks and expect them to do just what they told us to our faces that they would do. Unfortunately they went of to Washington and St. Paul and became something entirely different. 

Sometimes “their consciouses” got us, as a party, in to trouble. We are no longer a party made up of mindless drones who will just show up in the Fall of election year and support anything with an (R) behind its name. For too long the Republicans have been allowed to Walmart and water down our message to the point where voters no longer take us seriously. 

So here’s my plea to Pawlenty, please let us know what your intentions and agenda are. I know this is something everyione of your advisors, MNGOP leaders and powerbrokers, and political confidants are telling you not to do, but as someone who hopes to see the old incarnation of you come back in these dire economic times, I need to know if you’re with me or against me. 

• Do I need to keep you honest on the conservative issues, or do I need to help push what I hope would be our  shared agenda? 
• Do I need to seek out a challenger for you should you try to seek reelection? 
• Do I need to worry that the Party Leadership is firmly in your back pocket and will take out any and all challengers at the knees like thy did at the 06 and 08 state conventions?
• Is the Pawlenty who said, “We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem” going to make a return? 

Look, if you are not going to seek reelection and wait until 2010 to announce, you will handicap any Republican who tries to run. They will have no time to fundraise, build a campaign team, and present their vision to the voters. 

I know this is less than ideal conditions or expectations, but this is not candyland we’re dealing with here. 

We can’t tiptoe around and wait to see what Tim Pawlenty wants to do, while the DFL is mounting their onslaught for who ever runs as a Republican. They will be loaded for bear come January 2010. 

Where will we be? 

Will we have a born again conservative Pawlenty who is seeking a 3rd term? 

Mr. “Better and not QUITE as much as the DFL” Pawlenty seeking a 3rd term with an enraged and irrate base? 

Will we have to worry about simply holding our base of voters together if a conservative 3rd party candidate emerges?

Or will we be left scrambling to level the playing field with an open Governor’s seat and no time left to counter the dozen plus DFLers canvassing the state laying out their vision? 

Big questions, terrible timing, but that’s the facts jack. 

So what is it Mr. Pawlenty?

Are you with us or not?

Are you Running or not?