Residual Forces

As mentioned earlier, I had a chance to talk to Michelle Marston on the phone this morning. Marston has just gotten into town to spearhead Congresswoman Bachmann’s (R MN6) final push to election day. 

I had a chance to meet Marston a couple of times and let me tell you she rivals the Congresswoman in energy. One of those times was during my trip to Washington back in April. She was Bachmann’s Chief of Staff and in our short visit to the office Marston was pleasant as could be but busy as a bee. No matter how great a Congressman or Congresswoman is, with out a strong person heading up their office it all falls flat. They are who get things done and take the great ideas and make them happen. 

Bachmann has become one of the leading conservatives in Washington and Marston is no doubt one of the game changers who helped that happen for a 1st termer from the flyover state of Minnesota. Under SOTH Pelosi and her grueling 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Friday work schedule and the docket of floor sessions and hearings, both Michel(l)e’s have been doing a marvelous job on behalf of 6th District constituents, as it should be. When Congress is in session, the focus has to be in DC where the job of being in Congress is done. Since we’re approaching election season Marston is now going to focus on the homefront and the election. 

Like some other supporters of Bachmann’s I was wondering if the non-stop and erratic schedule in DC was going to hamper the campaign. Now sure, I am a partisan and I will say that I think that was part of the Pelosi plan. We all know not much actually got done in this Congress, but again, when they are meeting and voting Monday through Friday, you have to be there. You can’t mail it in. 

Democrats picked up a swath of seats last election, but they want more. Republicans were forced to choose between coming home to campaign, or staying in Washington to fight back against Pelosi’s socialist agenda. The longer she keeps Republican members in Washington, the more chances she gives Democrat challengers to claim the Republicans are ignoring their District. Bachmann’s challenger El ‘Gas Tax’ Tinklenberg and the local media have been trying to get that one to stick in voters’ minds here. 

That’s a good place to jump into the conversation this morning. 

The news and message of accomplishment that Bachmann can share with her District is that she is doing an incredible job defending the taxpayers and protecting the freedoms of Americans. Her record in just her first term, and climb to the leadership rung of the Republican House caucus is one for the ages. Like Palin for hockey Mom’s and Alaskans, Bachmann is putting Minnesota’s 6th and conservatism on the national stage. 

One of the things that really stuck with me this morning is just how terribly Tinklenberg is doing. Sure, anyone would look like a deer in the headlights compared to Bachmann, but Tinklenberg is so far behind and struggling for any attention that is is almost at 3rd party candidate status. 

As you remember a poll I mention earlier this month, Tinklenberg is polling behind all other Democrats in the 6th, badly. 

Bachmann Leads, Tinklenberg Tanking Compared To Other Dems

Sixth District
Bachmann…………40
Tinklenberg………27

Generic Dem………45
Generic GOPer…….38

Coleman………….37
Franken………….35
Barkley…………..8

Obama……………41
McCain…………..38
Nader…………….2
Barr……………..1

Tinklenberg is trailing even Al Franken in the 6th and is almost 20 points behind the generic ballot. And what’s even more tragic for Tinklenberg? This poll was done by a left leaning group,  Alliance for Minnesota. A group that has never seen a Republican they liked, nor a tax increase they opposed.  

You can translate Tinklenberg’s terrible polling into a waste of money and resources for the DCCC and liberal special interests. They won’t funnel money his way if he isn’t even making it to the gate. However, in the case of Bachmann, she is so well liked in her District, among conservatives, and so dang successful in Washington, that she is still a target to the fringe left, constituent sentiment be damned. 

Time will tell if the National Democrats, DFL (State Democratic Party), and the liberal 527’s will follow through with their plans to invest in Bachmann’s defeat, but if Tinklenberg’s finances are an early indicator, they are his only hope of it not being a landslide of Bachmann. 

A look at Tinklenberg’s most recent fundraising report (as of August 20) is a good sign his campaign is on the fast track to an early concession speech on November 4th. For a Democrat running against a Congresswoman that he claims is out of touch with her District, he sure isn’t capitalizing on it. He’s only raised $689,000 in his entire election. Of that he has gotten 33% of what little money he’s gathered from PACs. PACs can’t vote, constituents can, and if they were displeased with Bachmann, Tinklenberg’s numbers would at least come close to hers. Bachmann has raised over $2.1 million.

But the real marker with just a month left before the election is the Cash On Hand. (Again, as of August 20, the next quarter ends tonight at midnight)

Bachmann - $1,440,660

Tinklenberg - $203,899

Tinklenberg has had to pay workers to do the usual volunteer work and that adds up to a $90,000 a month expense. Again, if there was a constituent revolt, Tinklenberg wouldn’t need a payroll that large. He’d have 6th District residents showing up and doing it for free. 

So let’s recap where we are so far. Tinklenberg is behind other Democrats in the 6th according to a Democrat poll. He’s down 7 to 1 cash on hand. Behind the 8 ball doesn’t even describe it. He’s scratched on the break. 

Marston mentioned some other polling that they had done recently. It has Bachmann up 46 to 33 over Tinklenberg. Bachmann even polls ahead of the Generic ballot in the 6th which was 41 GOP - 40 DFL.

Tinklenberg has a name ID of only 51%. Of those who know him, only 28% even have an opinion of him. (Yeah, heard the name, but who is he and why does he have billboards? What kind of cars does he sell?) Of the mere 28% with an opinion, 10% have an unfavorable one. If you’re keeping track, that can be taken to mean he has a 10% approval rating. 

The numbers alone conclude that this is not looking good for Tinklenberg. Again, he’s running against a well liked member of Congress who is gaining national attention for her strong principled stands. Tinklenberg may have an incredible 3rd quarter that will reverse his entire campaign. Who knows, the national Democrats and liberals could dump have been funneling money in or have big attack ad buys ready for October, but Obama is tapping a lot of resources since he is privately financing, and the 527s are going Michael Moore over McCain-Palin. 

When it comes to state Democrat’s  and left leaning group’s spending, there are winnable fish to fry, if you will. The 3rd District race to replace Ramstad is very close and a brutal fight. I’m betting most discretionary spending by the State Dems and liberal groups will go there instead come into the 6th. I also think Rep. Walz in worried down in the 1st CD. He did finally break ranks with Pelosi and finally voted for his District rather than rubberstamp the liberal agenda. I think you’re gonna see some closer than normal races in all 8 Congressional Districts. Voters are realizing Change was just a campaign promise and that things have gotten worse under Democratic rule in Congress. 

And Franken, oh thank the lord for Al Franken. He is just a big old skeleton in the public relations closet mess that is forcing the Democrats to spend big on his defense and to attack Sen. Coleman to level the playing field. So it will be an interesting last few weeks in this race. Will the Democrats go all out to defeat Bachmann, or will they write this one off? 

Bachmann is taking no chances.

As soon as she has a break from the rigid schedule of Pelosi’s Congress and the Financial Bailout is settled, she will be focusing her attention to the campaign. As I have said, with the 24-7 news and non-stop crisis after crisis, you can’t blink or Democrats could extend domestic oil bans or hand over $700 Billion of taxpayer dollars to failed Wall Street corporations. In the mean time we have the second hardest working Michelle in Washington here to mind the store. 

I’ve had a busy night and I’m writing this while watching the rerun on Larry King. Bachmann was just on in a panel with James Carville debating the bailout vote that took place yesterday. Yes, our 6t District Congresswoman from Minnesota was just on CNN going head to head with hone other than Bill Clinton’s top advisor. Carville is the Democrat’s equivalent to our Rove, and Bachmann just went toe to toe with him. The last time that I remember Tinklenberg was brought on TV to talk about a major news issue he was blaming the 35W bridge collapse on Republicans and calling for a gas tax increase on August 1st of 2001. 

It is obvious that Bachmann was sent to Washington last election for a reason. Despite the tidal wave of Democratic gains and mantra of change she won and won handily. 6th District voters sent her to do a job and not only has she done it, she has excelled at it. 

But please don’t let this post think you can take it easy if you want to keep Michele Bachmann in Congress. She’s done a great job. Her campaign is ready for battle in the final stretch. She has one of Washington’s finest and a close confidant here to run the operation. The cards are dealt and the Bachmann has a pair of aces showing. 

But we still need to go door to door, we still need to make those phone calls. We can’t take anytthing for granted. Maybe Tinklenberg and the Democrats have been waiting in the tall grass. We can’t take it for granted that Bachmann will win. We need to make sure she does.

We need to force Democrats to fold in the 6th.