From The INBOX: McCain 08 = 1976 All Over Again
Posted by Andy on February 8th, 2008
When people ask me what next, I remind them that Jimmy Carter gave us Ronald Reagan, with out Carter, Americans would not have realized it was truly time for the Government to change. (NO, Obama and Hillary are not going to change anything in DC)
I got an interesting email this morning that includes some great retrospective on how we got to Reagan and how McCain’s ascension is a kin to Gerald Ford’s.
When you look at the math for the delegate count, it would be much easier for Gov. Romney to back out at this time since the delegate math had shown that it would be an expensive up-hill struggle to win the remaining delegates necessary to win.
Just remember back in 1976. We had President Ford, who was weak on economic issues. Ronald Reagan challenged Ford in ‘76, and Ford got trounced by Carter. Reagan ran hard for the nomination in 1980 and then went on to win the Presidency by a landslide.
What we are seeing this year are similar demographics to 1976. In ‘76, the Democrats had been out of the White House since 1968 (8 years) and were desperately wanting to take it back. They had a huge surge of momentum that swept Carter into office. The Republicans were still smarting over the stigma left behind from the Nixon Administration and the Watergate scandal.
Now, in 2008, we have Democrats who desperately want the White House, not having been in it at all for the past decade, and we have a Republican base that is demoralized for the wrecklessness of our former-majority in Congress and the current President over the economy.
My prediction is that Obama will be elected but he will become a one-term President. He will have to appease his base and get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan. In the meantime, he will also have to preside over a huge National Debt, and get increased spending under control. By the time 2011 hits, we will be in a full-fledged recession, if not depression, and by 2012, either Newt Gingrich or Gov. Romney will be elected President by a landslide.
This is something that is just cyclical. Bear with it. Focus on the local races.
The key point is to not forget the local and Congressional races. I fear having McCain on the Republican ticket is going to hurt Congressional Republican candidates. And given the huge number of Senate Republicans up this year, it is nearly impossible to expect gaining the majority. Add to that the large number of House Republicans retiring, on top of all the seats being up, well….. John McCain’s maverick message is going to make it awful tough for conservative candidates to rally their own base to their race.
After the 2006 election a lot of us hoped Party leaders got the message. Both in Minnesota and at the National level, we either returned failed leaders or elected moderates to run the parties. So far it is looking like the results of 08 will be what most of us feared with out serious reform in the party.
It is going to have to get worse before it gets any better.
I suppose I should take this opportunity to announce my intentions to think about exploring a run for President in 2012.
AAA in ‘012!
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February 8th, 2008 at 11:37 am
I’m sick of that analogy. We weren’t at war when Jimmy Carter took office. We weren’t facing an Islamofascist threat when Carter took office.
I’m as much a McCain skeptic as anyone. He doesn’t automatically get my vote. That said, his speech at CPAC contained alot of things that conservatives will embrace, starting with his calling for cutting the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 25%.
He also promised to veto any bill with earmarks in it. Again, that’s something conservatives can rally to.
I’ll post something about what’s really got to happen later today.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
BUT! What spending has he pledged to cut?
What programs has he promised to cut?
Please, he won’t b back to CPAC for 4 years if he wins. Don’t buy into one good speech to reverse a career of obstructing the conservative movement.
If a Dem gets the White House, and they do surrender to terrorists, we have grounds for impeachment. But frankly I believe that Hillbama knows they can’t surrender like their party wants them to. If they did, citizens would burn the White House.
Why am I supposed to think my 4 year long opposition to McCain should be forgotten because of one single speech?
Where was that McCain the last 25 years?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I’m not. I’m just not walking away. Defeating the terrorists is the most important criteria in who I’ll vote for.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
“Don’t buy into one good speech to reverse a career of obstructing the conservative movement.”
Like you did with Romney - Thanks for the advice, too bad you didn’t take it yourself.
February 8th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
If Obama wins it won’t be like Carter, it will be more like Kennedy, who brought Johnson, who brought, oh I don’t know, the great society or something. But that’s ok because then we got Nixon, right. So yeah, Conservatives for Obama, Yay!